Saturday, January 20, 2007

Waiting For What?!

...to get robbed? Raped?? Murdered???

[My snide comments in brackets.]

The waiting game

Urban pioneers settle in, hoping their investment pays off

By Mary Ellen Podmolik
Special to the Tribune
Published January 18, 2007

Four years ago, Collett and Brian Hudecek [they are white yuppies, sorry pic was in newstand ed.] were renting in the heart of Lincoln Park, near Steppenwolf Theatre in Chicago. Then they decided it was time to buy, but the upscale neighborhood was out of their budget. Today, they are seasoned urban pioneers. [Good for them!] Having outgrown their condo in West Humboldt Park, they are getting ready to move to a single-family home a few blocks further west [wait, wrong direction], hoping that the small signs of progress they've seen in the neighborhood will follow them.

"True, there's a lot of shady elements and you have to be careful and smart," [Smart how? Like NOT being an urban pioneer??] Collett Hudecek said. "But we've seen a coffee shop and some restaurants popping up. [That will solve everything, eh?] It hasn't exactly reached our street per se, but it's getting there."

They are not alone in their waiting game. Spurred by a desire to own a home [just how bad to you need a home??] and a budget that makes more affluent communities unattainable, buyers are venturing into unfamiliar neighborhoods and buying houses priced at a fraction of what they would cost elsewhere. They are fixing them up, settling in and waiting to see if their investment will appreciate as the neighborhood around them improves.

Real estate agents who themselves buy in diverse areas [but who DON'T live there] warn their clients that first and foremost, they have to think of a potential house as their home and not just an investment property where they happen to live. The tradeoff of living in a fringe neighborhood should be a home full of potential on the inside while you wait for the home's surroundings to change.

The benefits outweighed the risks for early buyers into Chicago neighborhoods such as Wicker Park, Bucktown and North Kenwood/Oakland. But how do you know for sure if the neighborhood you're eyeing will be the next to turn around?

You don't, and you've got to be willing to take a gamble early, say those who've done it and the real estate professionals that advise them. Potential buyers who wait until after developers, stores and restaurants arrive on the block will find prices already inching up.

"The drugs and the gang activity always precede gentrification," said Nacho Gonzalez, association director of the University of Illinois at Chicago Neighborhoods Initiative. "That's when a neighborhood has bottomed out. You look at it and say it's bad, but that's when you can get property at its cheapest." [Is he actually suggesting to clueless investors to buy in the most gang infested neighborhoods???]

Finding the right house requires homework, and a lot more of it than a buyer would do in a more stabilized neighborhood.

First, real estate agents say, look at the neighborhood's infrastructure.

Is easy access to transportation nearby? An "L" stop, perhaps? Has gentrification already hit neighborhoods on "L" stops closer to downtown? What about the roads? Is the house on or close to a major boulevard? Homeowners in South Chicago see a new Dan Ryan exit ramp at 91st Street as a sign of the community's up-and-coming status. [OOOOO, WOW an exit ramp! I'm so excited!!]

Another factor to consider is the existing housing stock. If much of it is teardowns waiting to happen, you don't want your older home surrounded in a few years by brand-new construction, regardless of how many updates you made. [But I thought if a mega million dollar houses was built next to a shack, it would increase the shack's value also. Has something changed?]

Jose Acevedo, broker-owner of Landmark Heritage Realty in Chicago, advises buyers to consider a graystone.

"Buying a graystone is better than buying stock," Acevedo said. "You buy a two-flat graystone in Bucktown, it's $800,000 to $1 million. You can find one in West Humboldt Park. You may be able to find it for $350,000 to $450,000. The question is how long is it going to take" for the neighborhood to improve and your investment to grow, Acevedo added.

When Michelle Parkinson was looking at buildings in North Lawndale, she was impressed by how beautiful the building exteriors looked in the winter. She bought a three-flat graystone five years ago and moved from Rogers Park two years ago. Inside, the building's three units had to be gutted. And outside, when the weather warmed, she saw clusters of people on the street corner, selling drugs. [THAT'S great!]

But she is heartened by the progress she since has seen, inside and out. A new police station opened nearby in February 2005. She qualified for a rehab loan from Neighborhood Housing Services and sees neighbors fixing up their own homes. She also counts small actions, such as a neighbor who frequently sweeps off area sidewalks, [They are sweeping up the empty littered dope baggies from the gangbangers] among signs of progress that community pride is strengthening on the block.

Parkinson has decided the purchase was a good one and estimates it will be another three years--or eight years total from the time she bought into the neighborhood--for her neighborhood to turn the corner.

"I figured there's so much gentrification east of me. I figured it won't be that long before it came to me," she said. "It's definitely going to pay off. I see the prices of homes, and they've gone up. I paid $149,000, and right now the building is worth $400,000." [So you want some one to buy your house that is surrounded by gangbangers for $400,000?!?! Are you nuts?]

When house-hunting, look for signs that the neighborhood is slowly catching the eye of other pioneers and determine your comfort level, say real estate agents. Drive around the neighborhood [dodge stray bullets] or walk from the train station at night. [HAHAHHAAH! GREAT idea!! Have wallet handy to give to muggers. Have multiple wallets in the case of multiple muggings.] To separate perception from reality, check the Citizen ICAM on the Chicago Police Department Web site, http://12.17.79.6/, a database of reported crime statistics by address, street, police beat or school. [In my links to the right, you are welcome.]

"I used to say I'll let Starbucks do my research for me," [I just threw up.] said Kara Finnegan, a sales associate at Dream Town Realty Inc. in Chicago. "And then Starbucks got too conservative and safe. Now I say if there are places that I want to eat at, grab a drink at or shop at, it's on the up and up."

Finnegan and her husband bought an 1885 brick two-flat in East Humboldt Park five years ago and moved in two years later. Now the couple is considering turning it into a single-family home for themselves.

"I just fell in love with the neighborhood," she said. "I stopped seeing it as a meal ticket and started meeting the neighbors."

Collett Hudecek has found her new neighbors, which include three generations of one family, to be welcoming and the block family-oriented. Still, she knows there's gang activity in the neighborhood and if it increases, she'll cut her losses and move. [Maybe you should not have gone there in the first place!]

"If I felt that was taking over the neighborhood, instead of the neighborhood pushing that out, [Those gangbangers ARE the neighborhood! They were born and raised there. That is their turf. Many Chicago gangs were founded in the 1950's as a youth group to keep outside youths from their neighborhoods. It was not until the 1980's-1990's that many gangs turned into narcotic dealing businesses.] that would be a sign for me to leave," she said. [That should have been a sign for you not to go there in the first place.]

Other signs for concern may include an increase in burglaries [The burglary victims are the pioneers. They are not from the hood and most local thieves would think twice about breaking into a neighbor's grandmother's house.] on the block or a loss of seniors, who often act as the neighborhood's eyes and ears.

The problem with buying into a changing neighborhood, real estate agents say, is that if an owner decided to sell, the pool of potential buyers is only like-minded pioneers.

It can be several years [or never] for a turnaround to take shape in some neighborhoods, so real estate agents warn prospective buyers that they have to be not only pioneers but patient pioneers. Give the area at least two years to show signs of improvement, they say, particularly if the next closest neighborhood to the city already is on the mend.

Pioneers also need to be aware that after years of seeing real estate speculators descend on other communities, longtime residents can be wary of outsiders. The key, UIC's Gonzalez said, is to become involved.

"The mistake they make is many gentrifiers go into a neighborhood, and they are encouraged by the real estate people to form an association," he said. "If you go into a neighborhood like that, join the local association that has always been there instead of separating yourself and then getting into conflict."

"When I lived in a condo and didn't talk to my neighbors in Logan Square, people would yell at me, `Yuppie, go home,'" said Sarah Linn, [Is that a sign?] a real estate agent at Baird & Warner who recently moved into a single-family home in West Humboldt Park. "When I bought my home, it was a very different feel. It was a block of homeowners, little old ladies and I went out and introduced myself. They were overjoyed. They asked me, `Is this an investment, or are you going to live there?' because they know the difference." [What was your answer?]

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Copyright © 2007, Chicago Tribune


Chicago is a city of neighborhoods. Many of which strangers should not be wandering around in the dark by themselves. Like it or not, Chicago's neighborhoods have a history of segregation. Readers from outside Chicago will be shocked and dismayed. But it is not a one way road, it is a multiple lane highway.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Gentrification worked well the last 5 years during the bubble, but now as other areas become cheap & if there is any local or national economic rough patch then a gentrification project can go south fast.

We've gotten use to them being a sure thing, and we forget that before the bubble more effort like this failed rather that succeeded, and many just received an anemic mediocrity state for a very long time.

I'd rather rent or buy something more modest in an area where I know I would not be attacked and have my life taken or disrupted so some crack head can get a fix and the city gets more property tax revunue by converting slums to yuppie luxury ghetto town homes/condos. Most cities just take the money and do nothing to allocate public safety resources to insure success of the plan in the long term. Never do it!!

Anonymous said...

anyone who starts pioneering today better plan to see little change for 10 yrs or so. i drive through the various chicago ghettos daily and see many lots coming and staying on the market. i see building but think it is only the low income housing promised by developers who were awarded sweet heart contracts on valuable parcels of what used to be CHA land. i can think of many instances in the not so distant past when the police lost control of parts of these ghetto areas leaving residents to fend for them selves as angry mobs ran the streets. it is common knowledge that near midnight on new years eve police hide under viaducts to avoid the hail of bullets in these neighborhoods. an unarmed pioneer could get burned out or worse while the police, whose first priority is the safety of its officers, hold a perimiter position. at this point in the cycle i would only consider ghetto RE for sec. 8 at this point and only if the P/E ratio is right.

Anonymous said...

Use Google Earth on some of those cheaper neighborhoods, and you will notice that the population density in those blighted areas must be way down, since so many buildings have been burnt out and demolished. Lots of greenspace! This sounds like an idea whose time has come!

Anonymous said...

I thought I would come back to this one now that the bubble has burst or is near free fall even if the South Loop is not falling apart yet.

I remember when anywhere in the recent boom Humbolt Park, Pilsen, Wicker Park, what was the South Loop say in 1997, was all just a complete mess and unless you were from those areas or ethnic communities and could blend in you were just stupid to buy there.

I also remember when places in Lincoln Square were $250,000 for a two flat just blocks from the main square (I also remember when all those wonderful original businesses were there). So, the wave of gentrification blew out and made many ok neighborhoods into suburb like Starbucks bastions, but now what?

I see hundreds of listings in places that seem too far west or south to be listed at $200-300K and since I am now in the market I am talking to people. My lender said that he has clients who are in South Loop and other new places where entire floors are not finished, where 2-3 developers have come and gone, and where 150 unit buildings have only a handful of residents. How scary is that!? I should write a script about a nice suburban girl whose daddy buys her a $500,000 condo in a building only to find out that the empty floors are haunted by monsters!

The whole gentrification project is collapsing, but it might just be a good thing since places that are not so bad might actually be a deal (not that you will ever get a brick two flat in Lincoln Square for $250,00 again).